Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, May 9th

Thursday’s bond market has opened flat, erasing overnight weakness following this morning’s favorable economic news. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 100 points and the Nasdaq down 10 points. The bond market is currently unchanged from yesterday’s close (4.49%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Wednesday’s early pricing.

0/32


Bonds


30 yr - 4.49%

100


Dow


39,157

10


NASDAQ


16,292

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low


Negative


Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction did not go as well as hoped. The benchmarks we use to gauge investor demand showed a below average level of interest in the securities. We saw a small negative reaction in bonds after results were announced at 1:00 PM ET, but it was not enough to cause an intraday upward revision in rates.

Medium


Positive


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

This morning’s sole economic release was last week’s unemployment update that showed 231,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This was a large increase from the previous week’s revised 209,000 initial filings and higher than the 212,000 that was expected. It was also the highest number since August of last year. We can consider the report good news for bonds and mortgage rates because rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector.

Medium


Unknown


Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

There is also a 30-year Treasury Bond auction taking place today. Results of it will be announced at 1:00 PM ET, making this an early afternoon event for the bond and mortgage markets. For it to cause an improvement in rates, we need to hear there was a strong demand from investors. A lackluster interest could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates.

Medium


Unknown


Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

Tomorrow brings us the week’s only monthly piece of economic data with the release of May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. This index measures consumer willingness to spend, which relates to consumer spending. If consumers are more confident in their own financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. This report usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets though, because it is not exactly factual data. It is expected to show a reading of 76.8, down from April's final reading of 77.2, indicating consumers are a little less confident than last month. If it shows a larger decline in confidence, bond prices could rise and mortgage rates may move slightly lower because waning confidence usually translates into softer consumer spending that restricts overall economic growth.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.